The Fundraising Forecast Was Wrong. Here's Why.

Earlier today, my significant other sent me an article that left me resisting the urge to say, "I told you so."

For months, he's been predicting that charitable giving would plummet. I've been arguing exactly the opposite: that individual giving would increase, and in some cases dramatically.

Now, one of us is named Noah and ought to be better at prognostication. On the other hand, we live in Pennsylvania, where we let a groundhog predict the weather, so perhaps the bar isn't quite as high as we'd like to think.

The article reported that charitable giving reached a record $617 billion in 2025, even as many nonprofit organizations continue to grapple with reductions in federal funding and ongoing uncertainty about what public support will look like in the years ahead.

To me, this wasn't surprising, as I've believed for quite some time that people "vote" with their wallets.

When government funding becomes uncertain, people who care deeply about a cause don't necessarily stop supporting it. They simply look for other ways to make an impact. Instead of assuming someone else will solve the problem, they become part of the solution themselves.

We're seeing this across multiple sectors. Arts organizations are asking their communities to preserve cultural opportunities that might otherwise disappear. Independent and nonprofit news organizations are experiencing increased support from readers who believe quality journalism is worth sustaining. Human service organizations are seeing donors respond when programs serving vulnerable populations face an uncertain future.

Does that mean every nonprofit will raise more money? Of course not. Fundraising has never been automatic. Organizations still need to build trust, communicate their impact, steward donors well, and make a compelling case for support.

What I do believe is that we're witnessing a shift in the nature of grassroots fundraising.

For decades, many organizations built annual campaigns around tradition: the yearly appeal, the gala, the golf outing, the membership renewal. Those tools still have value, but today's donors are increasingly giving because they feel personally connected to a mission and believe their gift will address a need they see unfolding in real time.

People aren't just donating to organizations. They're investing in outcomes they don't want to lose.

That changes how we communicate. It changes how we steward donors. It changes how we think about advocacy, storytelling, and community engagement. Rather than competing for a shrinking pie, many nonprofits may find themselves serving donors who are more intentional than ever before about where their dollars go.

The challenge isn't convincing people to care. It's showing them why your organization is the right vehicle for creating the change they want to see.

As for Noah...I'll graciously accept this round. After all, even Pennsylvania's most famous prognosticator only gets it right about half the time.

Resources

Record Charitable Giving Amid Federal Funding Uncertainty
Yahoo Finance. "White-Hot Rage Giving Is Fueling a Record-Breaking $617 Billion in Donations."